Their earliest exit in eight years gives the Houston Astros a head start on plotting a return to contention next season. This winter brings the potential for change, with familiar faces headed toward free agency and general manager Dana Brown vowing the team is “not taking anything off the table” in pursuit of improving its roster. It invites an overview of each position group and its outlook. Next, the rotation:

2024 review: Hit hard by injuries, the Astros’ rotation reeled for a month, found stability in unexpected sources and emerged a primary strength. Cristian Javier and J.P. France, two key members of the 2023 rotation, combined for 12 starts before undergoing season-ending surgeries. José Urquidy did not throw a pitch for Houston, and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander posted a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts.

Area of strength: Brown and Blanco had breakthrough seasons that could bolster the unit next year and beyond. In the spring, Astros coaches spoke of Brown harnessing his top-tier stuff and taking a “next step” to the front of the rotation. April instead resembled a regression as Brown posted a 9.78 ERA that might have jeopardized his starting spot if not for Houston’s rash of pitching injuries.

In May, Brown started throwing the sinker that helped him neutralize right-handed hitters, allowed him to attack with three types of fastballs, and keyed his turnaround. Over his final 21 starts, Brown pitched to a 2.27 ERA and held opponents to a .220 batting average. Just two qualified starters, Paul Skenes and Michael King, owned a lower ERA in that span.

Blanco, an erstwhile reliever pressed into the rotation by injuries, emerged from relative obscurity in his age-30 season. The right-hander made 29 starts and finished fourth among qualified MLB starters in ERA (2.80) and first in opponents’ average (.190). A suspension for a foreign substance and a rocky start to his second half dimmed attention on Blanco, who nonetheless proved the most impactful surprise of Houston’s season.

Area of struggle: Health and returning to it. Javier and Urquidy had Tommy John surgery in the same week in June. Javier made seven starts around an IL stint for “neck discomfort” before being shut down. Urquidy dealt with a forearm muscle strain in spring training and progressed to minor league rehab starts before suffering a setback in late May that led to the second Tommy John surgery of his career.

France, who dealt with shoulder inflammation in spring training, made five starts for Houston but was optioned to Triple-A and had shoulder surgery to repair a capsule tear in July. There was optimism in spring training that Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who had elbow surgeries in 2023, could return during the second half of the season. Neither did, as both met setbacks in their rehab processes.

Verlander also began the season on the IL building up from an offseason shoulder issue and missed two months with an unspecified neck ailment. Despite the number of injuries and issues with rehabbing pitchers, Dana Brown indicated when asked at his end-of-season news conference that the Astros would not view them as cause to review their return-to-play procedures this offseason.

“I think sometimes we all get ahead of ourselves in trying to think, ‘When should this guy come back?’ And we put certain timelines, and maybe we should pull back a little bit,” Brown said.

“I think all of our medical people worked very hard to get all of these guys back. It was just unfortunate that some of them have taken longer and some of them we’re still waiting to come. But injuries are up throughout the entire league. … And I think we probably should just be a little more patient as to saying when guys are coming back and meet those timelines.”

Key question: Will Garcia or McCullers be ready for spring training? Garcia was throwing bullpens again when the Astros’ season ended, a positive step toward his potential return in 2025. McCullers’ status remained unclear. McCullers, who last pitched for the Astros in the 2022 World Series, had not resumed throwing as of early this month, Dana Brown said.

Houston projects to return four starters from its end-of-year rotation in Valdez, Hunter Brown, Blanco and Arrighetti. If the Astros believe Garcia will be ready by spring training, that group could form the makings of a 2025 rotation. Houston has not ruled out the possible return of McCullers, who remains under contract through 2026, which would augment its depth.

If there is a question about their status, it might be prudent for Houston to fortify its rotation this winter. Even if not, the last two years have illustrated how depth can dwindle during a season. Dana Brown did not rule out pursuing rotation help but seemed to downplay the need, saying: “Our rotation is going to be pretty stacked, so I think that’s a good place to be.”

Contract statuses: Valdez is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and projected by MLB Trade Rumors to earn $17.8 million in 2025, a number that would make him the third-highest-paid player among returning Astros after Jose Altuve and Josh Hader. If the Astros don’t plan to extend Valdez, it invites curiosity of whether they would entertain the idea of trading the left-hander to create payroll space and address other roster deficiencies. But that would leave a gaping hole at the top of their rotation.

Verlander and Kikuchi are poised to become free agents. Dana Brown sounded tepid when asked about the possibility of re-signing Verlander, saying the Astros would discuss “what’s the best thing for our team and how we should go forward.” Kikuchi expressed some interest after the season in returning to Houston, where he posted a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts, but the left-hander’s post-trade success figures to increase other teams’ interest in him on the open market.

Hunter Brown, Blanco and Arrighetti are all yet to enter arbitration eligibility. Garcia will be arbitration-eligible for a second time. Urquidy is entering his final year of eligibility and likely to miss most of the season recovering from surgery; presuming the Astros tender him a contract, MLB Trade Rumors projects the right-hander will receive the same $3.75 million figure he earned in 2024.

Prospects: Houston dealt its top pitching prospect, Jake Bloss, in the trade for Kikuchi. Ryan Gusto, A.J. Blubaugh and Colton Gordon spent most or all season at Triple-A and represent the next wave of depth. Gusto was called up to make his major league debut on the final day of the regular season, but the game was rained out in Cleveland. Dana Brown named Gusto among prospects who could contribute in 2025. Miguel Ullola, a 22-year-old right-hander, finished the season as the Astros’ top-ranked pitching prospect by MLB Pipeline. Ullola spent most of the season at Double-A and posted a 4.24 ERA with 166 strikeouts in 127⅓ innings. He has averaged 12.62 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors.

Number to note: .235. A simple way to distill how Houston’s starters succeeded this season: They did not give up a lot of hits. Opponents had a .235 expected batting average against Astros starters, per Statcast, the lowest mark against any team this season. That translated to an actual .232 batting average, second lowest after Mariners starters’ .219 mark.

From June 1 on, Astros starters held opponents to a .221 average, lowest in the majors, and paired that with a 25.3% strikeout rate that ranked third behind the Braves and Giants. Valdez, Brown, Blanco and Arrighetti combined to start 78 of 103 games over that span, offering some optimism for how a rotation featuring them might perform next season.

Previous analyses in the series:

Catchers

Infield

Outfield